Our 2009 Predictions

Hi everyone. My family is in a bad way job wise, money wise, and health wise. I am hoping 2009 will be better, at least health wise. What are you folks thoughts and predictions for 2009?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wiegand/wiegand122208.html

Roger Wiegand
Dec 22, 2008
"We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven't even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.

In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009."
-Traderrog

The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks' net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben & Hank's bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker's rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.

The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.

Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery. While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan
will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009. We think the worst of the worst hits in later September 2009.

During the spring of next year we see:

(1) A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; (2) The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; (3) Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; (4) The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; (5) And finally, the grand smashing finale of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments! We heard today the total is 500 trillion! I cannot even fathom that number. These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.

Shares traders and investors have one more solid quarter, in our view to regain some stock market losses on the forthcoming Obama Trillion Dollar handouts. We think the rising share markets will help most all sectors gain some recovery and provide the illusion the bottoms are in and new bases found. The stark reality hits home after shares peak in April or early May taking an unprecedented selling high dive scaring the wits out of Americans and the watching world.

Even with these events and rising unemployment and social problems, economic observers and analysts could continue to plead the worst is over, the bottoms are in and a fine, new, shiny world of trading and investing in our bright economy lies just ahead for the fall of 2009. Then, in later September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash. How low is low and how bad can it get? We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE's on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?

Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930'S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.

Several European nations have larger, more established social safety nets for the unemployed. In the USA, local, regional and national authorities are not nearly as prepared. The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed. This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States. Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable.

The last report we've seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day. We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35,000,000 with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children. Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever. As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the "haves' are common.

The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands. In addition, the US Dollar's valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.
Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy. It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late. Benny Bernanke is out of rate cut running room.

Consumers are broke and going broker. Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof. Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages. In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants. The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them. We are witnessing system breakdown.

Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass. It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble. California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as are many of her cities. Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will many other surprises as well. There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and counties to borrow ever more.

The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover. Sadly, the recovery process will take years. Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years. We see no recovery until 2015.

Trader Rog - Roger Wiegand


Does anyone know of this man, Roger Wiegand? Is he just trying to scare people to buy gold, or for his customers that get his newsletter, to buy more gold? Do you folks believe him? Finally, what are your predictions for 2009?

His bio:

Mr. Wiegand is the Editor and Publisher of Trader Tracks a Stocks, Futures and Commodities electronic newsletter publication for active traders. In addition, Roger writes a weekly column, “Rog’s Corner,” For J Taylor’s Gold and Technology Stocks Newsletter. A native of Michigan, Roger has a background in graphics, writing, and editing as well as sales, marketing, and commercial printing. His real estate experience includes development of sand and gravel mines, large landfill sites, and Planned Unit Developments containing several residential and commercial phases.

He has had an interest in precious metals and futures since the commodity rallies of the late 1970's and early 1980's. Roger is a voracious reader reviewing several domestic and foreign newspapers and wire services daily for economic, political, and monetary news. His background in a 25 year real estate development and construction career specialized in forward planning, consulting, and using creative skills for conceptual project thinking.

His present work is focused on the precious metals, currency, energy and interest rate markets for trading on the primary American exchanges. Roger has studied these markets intensively for 12 years, to hone personal trading skills. Experience in land, development and base material projects has evolved into consulting for mining companies and analyzing those markets. He has developed longer term ideas for finance and mining marketing doing work on behalf of private and public mining companies. Roger's consulting work is to focus on concepts and "big picture" forward planning for mining companies. His newsletters utilize the global news, and his personal research and knowledge for expressing personal trading ideas."

Top Trends Of 2009
By Gerald Celente
12-18-8

Exactly one year ago, The Trends Research Institute alerted you to an impending economic crisis we named, the "Panic of '08." Last year we wrote:"In 2008, Americans will wake up to the worst economic times that anyone alive has ever seen. And they won't know what hit them. "

Our forecast was right on target. Few others saw the Panic coming. As former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin declared (November 29, 2008,) "Nobody was prepared for this."

Mr. Rubin's statement was incorrect. We were prepared, and we prepared our Trends Journal ® subscribers.

Now, in our "Top Trends of 2009," we forecast "The Collapse of '09," which in turn will spiral into the "Greatest Depression" the worst economic conditions America has ever experienced.

That's not all. Beyond economics, 2009 will be a tumultuous year. Trends foreboding and trends promising:

The Collapse of '09: Markets will tumble and major businesses will fail.

The Greatest Depression: Worse than the1930's Depression. Why?

Revolution: What will be the spark that ignites it? Who will fire the shot heard around the world?

Obamarama: High hopes, broken promises: Some victories, major failures.

Economic Slim-Fast: Like it or not, Americans will go on a spending diet and food diet.

Bush Gardens: Lawns out, Edible Landscaping in. Why Bush Gardens?

Whole Health Healing: 2009 marks a year of "attitude change" for the on-trend health aware.

Little People Squeeze: Politicians will put the financial squeeze on the already squeezed.

Regenerative Medicine: The time is ripe for stem cells to come out of the laboratory and into the clinic.

That's Entertainment. Lifting spirits and drinking them will be big business and major pastimes during the Greatest Depression.

College Crash: Following the equity market meltdown, the real estate bust and the retail unraveling, comes the college crash.

Cheri Van Deusen
The Trends Research Institute


From http://www.trendsresearch.com/


GERALD CELENTE
The World's #1
Trends Forecaster



If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente. — New York Post




When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente. — CNN Headline News



A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties. —The Economist



Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right.— USA Today



There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about. — CNBC



Those who take their predictions seriously ... consider the Trends Research Institute. — The Wall Street Journal



"You’re always terrific." — Oprah Winfrey



"A guy that obviously knows his trends." — Bill O’Reilly



"Our favorite Trend Forecaster, Gerald Celente."— Miles O’Brien



Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around. — The Atlanta Journal-Constitution



Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients. — The New York Times



Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority. — 48 Hours, CBS News



Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing. — The Detroit News



Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, ‘green marketing,’ and the boom in gourmet coffees. — Chicago Tribune


The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture. — The Los Angeles Times

I didn't see this by Paul Joseph Watson from Tuesday, December 2, 2008, at:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/from-the-panic-of-2008-to-the-collapse-of-2009.html

The country’s top trends forecaster, who accurately predicted the “panic” of 2008 nearly a year before it unfolded, is now ominously suggesting that next year will come to be known as “the collapse of 2009″.

Gerald Celente, CEO of Trends Research Institute, sent out a letter to his subscribers announcing that he had purchased a domain name called “Collapseof09.com”.

Around this time last year, Celente sent the following message to his subscribers;

In 2008, Americans will wake up to the worst economic times that anyone alive has ever seen. And they won’t know what hit them. Just as they were in a state of shock on 9/11, they’ll be frozen in fear when the Economic 9/11 strikes at the heart of Wall Street.

Dismiss this trend forecast at your own peril. If you believe everything will be all right, and that the ship of state is sailing along just fine, toss this out and go about your business.

Having correctly forecast the “Economic 9/11″, Celente is warning that people should prepare for something much worse in 2009.

As we reported last month ( http://www.prisonplanet.com/celente-predicts-revolution-food-riots-tax-rebellions-by-2012.html ), Celente recently told Fox News that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

Celente’s accuracy is widely heralded since he correctly predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

In 2007, Celente forewarned that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others.

Celente has stated that the current financial downturn will ultimately lead to nothing less than revolution.

“There will be a revolution in this country,” he said. “It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.”

Watch the clip.

Fox Business: Gerald Celente Predicts Revolution 11/10/08
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46MEqEgdLTg


The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.

“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.

The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.

The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, “The world’s middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest,” and that, “The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.”

In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.

“There will be a revolution in this country,” he said. “It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.”

“The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That’s going to be the big one because people can’t afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You’re going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop.”

“It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.”

“We’re going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It’s going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It’s going to come as a shock and with it, there’s going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.”

The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celente’s accuracy as a trend forecaster.

“When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente.”
— CNN Headline News

“A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.”
— The Economist

“Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right.”
— USA Today

“There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about.”
- CNBC

“Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute.”
— The Wall Street Journal

“Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark … he’s one of the most accurate forecasters around.”
— The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

“Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients.”
— The New York Times

“Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority.”
— 48 Hours, CBS News

“Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing.”
— The Detroit News

“Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, ‘green marketing,’ and the boom in gourmet coffees.”
— Chicago Tribune

“The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture.”
— The Los Angeles Times

“If Nostradamus were alive today, he’d have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente.”
— New York Post

So there you have it - hardly a nutjob conspiracy theorist blowhard now is he? The price of not heeding his warnings will be far greater than the cost of preparing for the future now. Storable food and gold are two good places to make a start.

After Wall Street Bailout,
Is Main Street Headed for Depression?

by Linda Moulton Howe
http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=1485&category=Environment


“This Wall Street bailout is really taxation without representation.”
- Gerald Celente, Editor and Publisher, The Trends Journal


October 17, 2008 Rhinebeck, New York - The American government bought $250 billion in ownership of United States banks this week of October 13th. The week before, it authorized nearly a trillion dollars to bail out Wall Street that included even saving the world’s largest insurance company, A. I. G.

But what about all the struggling Americans on Main Street who are watching their 401(K) savings and their pensions shrink as the Dow moves up and down 700 points a day? What about the estimated million Americans who have lost their homes to foreclosures in the subprime mortgage mess? Who is bailing out the Main Street taxpayers who are being used by the United States government to bail out Wall Street? And what happens to shopping malls and other retailers as the government reported this week that retail sales are down 1.2% in September 2008 - and are expected to keep falling?

Virginia Cervasio, Exec. Dir., of the Lee County Suicide Resource Center in Florida told Associated Press this week: “A lot of people are telling us they are losing everything. They’re losing their homes; they’re going into foreclosure; they’ve lost their jobs.”

On October 13, 2008, Associated Press reported: “As Economy Sinks, Officials Fear Violent Solutions”

- An out-of-work money manager in California loses a fortune and wipes out his family in a murder-suicide.

- A 90-year-old Ohio widow shoots herself in the chest as authorities arrive to evict her from the modest house she called home for 38 years.

- In Massachusetts, a housewife who had hidden her family’s mounting financial crisis from her husband sends a note to the mortgage company warning: ‘By the time you foreclose on my house, I’ll be dead.’ Then Carlene Balderrama shot herself to death, leaving an insurance policy and a suicide note on a table.

- In Ocala, Florida, Roland Gore shot his wife and dog in March 2008 and then set fire to the couple’s home, which had been in foreclosure, before killing himself. His case was one of several in which people have killed spouses or pets, destroyed property or attacked police before taking their own lives.

October 9, 2008, Trend Alert from The Trends Research Institute, Rhinebeck, New York.

Also see: 122107 Earthfiles “Trends in 2008” and 091508 Earthfiles “Economic 9/11.”

On October 9, 2008, Gerald Celente, publisher and editor of the highly respected Trends Journal issued a Trend Alert headlined: “Washington Bailout A Bust. Depression to Follow.” This week I asked him why a Trend Alert about an economic depression when the American government seems to be doing everything it can to hold off financial collapse?

Interview:

Gerald Celente, Editor and Publisher,
The Trends Journal, Rhinebeck, New York

Gerald Celente, Editor and Publisher, The Trends Journal, Rhinebeck, New York:“All they are doing is throwing good money after bad. This is unprecedented. This isn’t the United States of America. It’s now the United Soviet States of America. They are buying banks, brokerages, insurance companies. We (U. S. government) now own the world’s largest insurance company! And mortgage companies. And they are doing it all with taxpayer money. So, anyone with a little common sense, Linda, could figure it out.

If the boys on Wall Street botched a deal before, what makes anyone think that the inept people in Washington are going to pull it off any better? They are not. What they (government bureaucrats) have better than the scammers on Wall Street is that they (government) has unlimited funds from the U. S. Treasury by taxing the people and taking all the money they want to do their deals. So, nothing good is going to come out of this. All they are doing is bailing out the preferred shareholders, the foreign banks that have loaned the money – all on the backs of the American people. This is a ‘Foetus Tax’ in the sense that generations are going to have to pay for this. This will do nothing, nothing! to stop the economic depression that is coming. All it will do is bailout the ‘too big to fail’ companies.

WHY DID THE DOLLAR GO UP DURING THE CHAOS?

Gold went down, the dollar went up. The markets are so highly manipulated. There are reports coming out of banks shorting gold positions by the hundreds of thousands trying to keep gold prices down. There are reports of people lining up in Europe and other countries to buy gold and cashing out.

Because when people realize that their paper is not worth the paper it’s printed on and people start going into gold, the whole system could collapse immediately. So, they are doing everything they can to prop the dollar up and to push gold prices down. They are propping the dollar up also, so that the people that are in dollars that want to get out have an opportunity, such as the Chinese and all the other foreign banks that are holding so much of the dollar debt.

WHO HAS THE ABILITY TO PROP UP THE U. S. DOLLAR?

The central banks because remember they are in control of the printing press. So you have coordination between the world central banks and the Federal Reserve and they are trading heavily into the markets to keep it going.

SO, THE CENTRAL BANKS MIGHT HAVE MORE EFFECT ON WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH THE DOW NOW THAN JUST NORMAL STOCK INVESTORS?

Absolutely! The game is rigged. It’s being rigged in broad daylight and we see it right in front of us.

Goldman Sachs has now taken over the White House with Henry Paulson in Treasury. When they had the A. I. G. bailout, the biggest financial insurance company in the world. They just got $85 billion and just asked for another $40 billion and we taxpayers just paid for a half million dollars worth of perks for their A.I.G. Commissars to go to the resorts like they used to do in the Soviet Union.

Do you know who the only person sitting in on that meeting was outside of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve? It was Blankfein from Goldman Sachs! It’s criminal activity from top to bottom.

WHAT DOES THAT LEAVE THE AMERICAN PUBLIC WITH IN TERMS OF ANY KIND OF POWER TO CHANGE THE SYSTEM?

It leaves them with anger and when they are broke and desperate, that’s when denial no longer rules. Denial, by the way, is still pretty prevalent among a lot of people. But when the reality hits and they see how bad things are, you’re going to start to see tax revolts. It’s going to start taking place at the local level. People can’t afford these school taxes. They can’t afford the property taxes. I mean it’s a joke! Property taxes keep going up and they keep re-evaluating. But when the value goes down, the bureaucrats don’t lower the taxes. What is going on here? People are not going to be able to afford it and that’s when the tax revolt happens and that’s what we are going to see.



What Could 2009 America Look Like?

YOU HAVE BEEN SO ACCURATE SINCE 2007 IN CALLING EXACTLY WHAT HAS UNFOLDED IN 2008. COULD YOU HELP THE GENERAL NORTH AMERICAN AUDIENCE UNDERSTAND WHAT THE TRENDS JOURNAL AND INSTITUTE WOULD SEE IN DETAIL AS WE GO FORWARD NOW FROM OCTOBER 2008 TO OCTOBER 2009?

First, we have to remember there are many wild cards that are thrown on the deck that nobody can ever anticipate and that’s why nobody can really predict the future. You can see the face of it, but you really never know what’s going to happen (in detail).

Having said that, there might be wars. Geopolitical tensions are always coming to light just as happened this past summer with Georgia invading South Ossettia and the belligerency shown by the United States on behalf of Georgia in support of their invasion. So that was the beginning of a new Cold War. How is that going to play out? We’re not sure. But here’s what we know, for example, about that. We know when that happened, the Russian stock market collapsed and it has not recovered since. So, the Russians are very angry at America for having instigated that war, as the Russians believe. So, we don’t know all the geopolitical tensions.

If things remain constant on the economic and political fronts, what we’re going to see in the beginning of the New Year 2009 is a very cold winter. February and March 2009 are going to be very, very bleak. We’re going to see the depression really start to set in.

WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION OF A DEPRESSION?

We don’t go by unemployment numbers. They reached almost 25% in the last Depression of 1929. Now, there will be masses of working poor doing two to three jobs just to make ends meet, plus you’re going to have a lot of people unemployed as well – probably in the 15% level at least. Again, the numbers are cooked all the time because what happens is that once a person is no longer looking for work and their unemployment benefits have run out, the government no longer counts them as unemployed!

Again, the United Soviet States of America! Just as the bureaucrats don’t include energy and food into the core inflation numbers.



Mall and Retail Store Collapses

This whole notion that we need a Wall Street is a fallacy because Wall Street killed Main Street by giving all the real estate developers money and special tax breaks and grants given by the cities and states to build all these huge malls and outlets that have sapped the vitality out of Main Street. That vitality is going to be re-invigorated and it’s going to start now in the New Year 2009. You’re going to see more vitality spring up in the dead areas because we’re only talking now in the media about the financial collapses. Let’s start talking about the retail collapses that are going to follow soon. You’re going to see big name retailers buckle under and go under. You’re going to see malls become ghost malls.



Desperate People, Tent Cities, Rise in Crime

It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.

We did a piece about self-storage units really taking on the true meaning of their name. People are going to start living in these things and it’s going to be better than living in a tent out in the street or risking your life in a homeless shelter.

We’re going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It’s going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It’s going to come as a shock and with it, there’s going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.



Tax Revolts

WILL THIS COUNTRY EVER CHANGE BACK TO WHAT IT WAS BEFORE THIS CORRUPT COLLAPSE?

There will be a revolution in this country. It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.

We’re very confident of that because as we look through history – tracking trends is a way of understanding where we are, how we got here and where we’re going. Throughout the entire 19th Century, and even into the early 20th Century, the major issue was the central banks taking over the country. That’s why you had people like Andrew Jackson. It’s been a major issue since our founding fathers and will continue to be. This is only a temporary take over.

BUT HOW DO THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NON-WALL STREET PEOPLE GET ENOUGH LEVERAGE TO HAVE A REVOLUTION AGAINST A CORRUPT WALL STREET AND GOVERNMENT IN TERMS OF THEIR PRIORITIES?

The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That’s going to be the big one because people can’t afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You’re going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop.

From that taxation issue because that’s what’s going on right now – this Wall Street bailout is really taxation without representation. It worked before; it will work again. That’s what we see as being the glue that brings this third party movement together because now it’s not a question of becoming involved because it’s a political or ideological belief. It’s in your pocketbook. It’s staring you in the face. People cannot make ends meet. What are they doing? They’re going around begging to bailout disenfranchised Wall Street executives?!?

No, you’re going to start seeing the revolution and it’s going to take the form of tax revolts.



Main Street Renaissance?

You’re going to see a lot of changes that are going to make it better for the average person. The system right now is built on too-big-to-fails. There’s not enough money in the world to save them. So, we’re going to see a Renaissance as well. Something old is dying and something new is being born.

DO YOU MEAN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SORT OF REJUVENATION BECAUSE PRICES WILL BE FORCED DOWN TO SOMETHING THAT PEOPLE CAN HANDLE?

The prices will be forced down, but we’re going to go through a period of hyper-inflation the likes of which we have never seen before. The government is just printing money on a daily basis. They are just manufacturing it out of thin air! So, we’re going to see hyper-inflation, the kind you used to see in Argentina and Brazil when they went through currency crises. The prices are going to go lower, but in real dollar terms, it’s still going to cost a lot.

Where the change is going to come about is that people are going to start re-thinking about what consumerism is about. That’s the real dynamic change. You can’t buy what you can’t afford and don’t need. That’s going to be a wake up call. You don’t borrow to build. You only build with profits.

So, as that happens, we’re going to see more community spirit. The small towns that made this country great in the first place are going to re-emerge. With that, family, friends, relatives – a whole different structure starts taking place rather than doing it all on your own, you don’t need anybody, you can make it to the top mentality. So again, something old is dying and something new is being born.



Socialism of America

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT APPEARS TO BE BEING BORN IS LIKE A COUP D'ETAT SUDDENLY IN OCTOBER 2008, IN WHICH ESSENTIALLY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES TOOK OVER THE FINANCIAL COMMUNITY IN WHAT IS BEING DESCRIBED ON CNBC-TV AS THE ‘SOCIALISM OF THE UNITED STATES FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.’

I call it a communism! It’s communism when you have state-controlled monopolies running the largest businesses. That’s not socialism. Socialism is something for everybody out there. At least you would get health care and education and other benefits.

This now is communism. Instead of the commissars from the Communist Party, they are bringing the people in from the Wall Street party. In socialism, you get to vote. In communism, you don’t. The majority of the American people were against the bailout. According to all the research, it was running 100 to 1 against. People were calling their representatives, but the representatives don’t represent the people. The representatives did what the Party wanted. So, it’s really communism and why I call it the United Soviet States of America.

SOME BUSINESS PEOPLE ARE EXPRESSING SHOCK AT THE RAPIDITY WITH WHICH THIS HAS OCCURRED.

There are honorable people out there. Not everyone is a thief or a crook. This is just the beginning of the movement. People don’t know what to do. There has never been a galvanizing issue before (for an American revolution). This is it!



2009 Inflation

THE PRACTICAL ISSUE OF PRINTING ALL OF THIS MONEY TO GET US OUT OF ONE HOLE PUTS US IN THE INFLATION HOLE WHERE PRICES ON GOODS IN THE UNITED STATES – THEY MIGHT BE AFFORDABLE TO US, BUT IF WE TOOK OUR MONEY OUT INTO THE REST OF THE WORLD, TO EUROPE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THAT EVERYTHING IS GOING TO COST US THERE IS OVERWHELMING AND PEOPLE WILL STOP TRAVELING?

Oh, absolutely. It’s already happening and it’s just going to get worse. We have to understand that even the numbers the federal bureaucrats are talking about - $700 billion and $250 billion for the banks, it’s peanuts compared to the credit default swaps, which nobody knows what the heck they are, including myself. They are $ 353 trillion dollars. I mean, you can’t make up a number like that! That’s only in credit default swaps, the derivatives.

Then you start looking at commercial real estate. When is that going to collapse? When are all the over-built stores? We have been over-stored in this country for over a decade. So, you’re going to start seeing a huge commercial real estate collapse.

The sub prime problem is only about $ 2 trillion at best compared to the rest, but it’s an easy target because the bureaucrats can blame all those irresponsible little people for borrowing more than they should have.

How about all those leveraged buy outs such as the Carlisle Group, Blackstone, Cerberus – they bought things like Chrysler and that Hilton chain with no money down! That’s where a big unraveling is going to come.

BUT IS THIS GOVERNMENT IN THE NEW PHILOSOPHY OF SOCIALISM GOING TO ALLOW THOSE CORPORATIONS TO COLLAPSE? OR ARE THEY (BUREAUCRATS) JUST GOING TO KEEP PROPPING EVERYTHING UP IN THIS KIND OF ALICE IN WONDERLAND WORLD?

They are going to try, but it’s not going to work. This is a temporary fix. They don’t have enough money to do it.

The only power they have is to print cheap money; the more cheap money they print, the worse hyper-inflation gets; the worse hyper-inflation gets, the more people become angry; the angrier people get, the more tax revolts; and that’s when we’ll see a new system. This country was built on tax revolts and it’s going to happen again. We’re only at the beginning stages of this change.

You talked about an Alice In Wonderland world, if private enterprise messes it up as bad as they did (laughs), who in their right mind would think a government that has only proven Katrina quality rescue skills can do something better? I mean, we’re losing two wars. Our health care system is in shambles. Our education system no longer wins, places or shows worldwide. They still have a hole in the ground where the World Trade Centers used to stand. The levies (New Orleans) have not been fixed. And neither have the voting machines!

When we went through the 1929 Depression, Wall Street was hated! They didn’t recuperate until the mid-1950s. So, we’re going to see the same thing. There’s going to be a huge government backlash, particularly for the Democrat and Republican parties and against Wall Street.



Back to Main Street to Survive?

As I see it at the Trends Institute, what is bad for Wall Street is good for Main Street. Wall Street only helps the too-big-to-fails. They don’t care about the rest of us. And we see it over and over again in their CEO pay or whatever greedy thing it might be.

So, now you have the butcher, the baker, and even the shoemaker start to thrive again. I could imagine a small shoe company and you could have people supporting it because they don’t want to buy shoes made by slave labor overseas.

So, we think this could become a real Golden Age of America. It could become the epicenter of the Second Renaissance. That’s what we’re pushing for.”

More Information:

For further reports about trends research, please see other reports below in the Earthfiles Archive:

• 09/17/2008 — With the September 15, 2008 “Economic 9/11,” Are We Facing Depression Like 1929?
• 12/21/2007 — Trends 2008
• 12/21/2006 — Top Trends for 2007 by Gerald Celente
• 02/03/2006 — Trends 2006
• 12/31/2000 — Top Trends 2001
• 01/02/2000 — New Trends for 21st Century
• 01/03/1999 — Trends in 1999 with Gerald Celente

Website:

Trends Research: http://www.trendsresearch.com

U. S. Bullion Depository: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Bullion_Depository

Great Depression of 1929: http://www.nps.gov/archive/elro/glossary/great-depression.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

Nov 19th 2008
From The World in 2009 print edition of The Economist

An end of hubris
http://www.economist.com/theworldin/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12574180

America will be less powerful, but still the essential nation in creating a new world order, argues Henry Kissinger, a former secretary of state and founder of Kissinger Associates

The most significant event of 2009 will be the transformation of the Washington consensus that market principles trumped national boundaries. The WTO, the IMF and the World Bank defended that system globally. Periodic financial crises were interpreted not as warning signals of what could befall the industrial nations but as aberrations of the developing world to be remedied by domestic stringency—a policy which the advanced countries were not, in the event, prepared to apply to themselves.

The absence of restraint encouraged a speculation whose growing sophistication matched its mounting lack of transparency. An unparalleled period of growth followed, but also the delusion that an economic system could sustain itself via debt indefinitely. In reality, a country could live in such a profligate manner only so long as the rest of the world retained confidence in its economic prescriptions. That period has now ended.

Any economic system, but especially a market economy, produces winners and losers. If the gap between them becomes too great, the losers will organise themselves politically and seek to recast the existing system—within nations and between them. This will be a major theme of 2009.

America’s unique military and political power produced a comparable psychological distortion. The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union tempted the United States to proclaim universal political goals in a world of seeming unipolarity—but objectives were defined by slogans rather than strategic feasibility.

Now that the clay feet of the economic system have been exposed, the gap between a global system for economics and the global political system based on the state must be addressed as a dominant task in 2009. The economy must be put on a sound footing, entitlement programmes reviewed and the national dependence on debt overcome. Hopefully, in the process, past lessons of excessive state control will not be forgotten.

The debate will be over priorities, transcending the longstanding debate between idealism and realism. Economic constraints will oblige America to define its global objectives in terms of a mature concept of the national interest. Of course, a country that has always prided itself on its exceptionalism will not abandon the moral convictions by which it defined its greatness. But America needs to learn to discipline itself into a strategy of gradualism that seeks greatness in the accumulation of the attainable. By the same token, our allies must be prepared to face the necessary rather than confining foreign policy to so-called soft power.

Every major country will be driven by the constraints of the fiscal crisis to re-examine its relationship to America. All—and especially those holding American debt—will be assessing the decisions that brought them to this point. As America narrows its horizons, what is a plausible security system and aimed at what threats? What is the future of capitalism? How, in such circumstances, does the world deal with global challenges, such as nuclear proliferation or climate change?

America will have to learn that world order depends on a structure that participants support because they helped bring it about

America will remain the most powerful country, but will not retain the position of self-proclaimed tutor. As it learns the limits of hegemony, it should define implementing consultation beyond largely American conceptions. The G8 will need a new role to embrace China, India, Brazil and perhaps South Africa.

The immediate challenge

In Iraq, if the surge strategy holds, there must be a diplomatic conference in 2009 to establish principles of non-intervention and define the country’s international responsibilities.

The dilatory diplomacy towards Iran must be brought to a focus. The time available to forestall an Iranian nuclear programme is shrinking and American involvement is essential in defining what we and our allies are prepared to seek and concede and, above all, the penalty to invoke if negotiations reach a stalemate. Failing that, we will have opted to live in a world of an accelerating nuclear arms race and altered parameters of security.

In 2009 the realities of Afghanistan will impose themselves. No outside power has ever prevailed by establishing central rule, as Britain learnt in the 19th century and the Soviet Union in the 20th. The collection of nearly autonomous provinces which define Afghanistan coalesce in opposition to outside attempts to impose central rule. Decentralisation of the current effort is essential.

All this requires a new dialogue between America and the rest of the world. Other countries, while asserting their growing roles, are likely to conclude that a less powerful America still remains indispensable. America will have to learn that world order depends on a structure that participants support because they helped bring it about. If progress is made on these enterprises, 2009 will mark the beginning of a new world order.

Henry Kissinger calls for a New International Order Part 1 of 3
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt_2uJDRJuU

Henry Kissinger calls for a New International Order Part 2 of 3
Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0CFuw_mDVc

Henry Kissinger calls for a New International Order Part 3 of 3
Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iY0EK9GckbE

"Political satire became obsolete the day Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize." -Tom Lehrer (One of the most influential political satire artists of the 20th century.)

"save the last bullet for yourself"! (george custer)

Prediction for 2009....after speaking with the catering manager in our downstairs take out shop which is part of a major restaurant/catering service, expect things to get worse yet for a while...more layoffs and foreclosures during 2009....things will not improve until sometime in 2010. Fasten the seat belt and batten down the hatches. Don't buy it unless you need it and can actually afford it.

And I hope to survive February 8, 2009.
My brother died this day in 1979.
My mom died this day in 1989
My dad died this day in 1999

I think the first post was a worst case/doomsday scenario. The guy that wrote the article was trying to play on people's first... Just remember- recessions have happened before and things WILL get better..

Things will worse through 2009, if they improve it will be in the later part of that year.

The next 3-5 years could be very touch and go. There might be periods of improvement followed by several steps back. The total bubble has yet to collapse and sadly for us to see longterm and continued improvement the bubble needs to collapse first.

Second Quarter in 2009 will be key. If folks are then defaulting on debts accrued during this holiday season then the credit card bubble may well collapse finally. Leading to even wider market slowdown than we have in 2008.

Sustained improvement is probably not likely until late 2010 or early 2011 at the earliest. There will be some periods of improvement before then but followed by a slide backwards. I do expect the first of these boost will occur shortly after Obama takes office. However once that initial even happens I expect there to be another pronounced drop afterwards as many realize there is no short term solution to the problems of the nation and Obama isn't going to wave a magic wand and it be better.

Financially I hope it is ALOT better in 2009. I just can't wait for 2008 to be over with!

And I hope to survive February 8, 2009.
My brother died this day in 1979.
My mom died this day in 1989
My dad died this day in 1999

Magyar, please do not wish your way into this coincidence. You will be fine. I never thought I would out live my parents, but Dad died of cancer at 52. Mom died of cigarettes C.O.P.D. at age 74 looking 94. I have never smoked and pray I will at least equal Mom's age.

God is not done with you yet. You have a big job helping others here and in the real World. If Pinoy's articles are true there will be a lot for us to do to help those who need it. 'Hub

I predict that Obama will take his rightful seat at the throne of our country and things will immediately improve to a utopian state.

Question for posters...

Do you believe what these predictions say? If so, are you changing your habits now to prepare for them.

I don't know how to put this so I hope it makes sense. Sometimes I feel that the "predictions" are what causes things. For instance.... a well know "predictor" says there's going to be an financial melt-down so the people that believe it pull all their money out of the banks..... which in turn [I]causes[I] the financial melt-down.

Yeah, that Wiegand, I just don't trust him because of the gold angle.

I did find someone's comment somewhere else about Celente's thoughts.

Well, he does say he spots TRENDS and this set of PREDICTIONS based on current trends reminds me of the 50’s predictions that we’d all be living like “The Jetsons” by now because of how “technology” was “progressing” back then…

As ANY Boy or Girl Scout can tell you “be prepared” is a great Motto to live by. Besides, even our government suggests we have “emergency kits” available in case of disaster. Common sense really.

The question each of us has to ask ourselves is how big and complicated do we want to make those recommended “preparations. Is it worthwhile to completely change our lives and “head for the hills”?

Or IGNORE THE OBVIOUS and DO NOTHING like that old joke about the man who stayed at his home in a flood as rescuer after rescuer came by and the punch line being he dies and asks GOD why he ‘”wasn’t saved” only to be told GOD TRIED by sending the rescuers…

Or take it slowly both learning and adding to to those potential “emergency supplies” as the threat(s) become more clear?

I stand by Knowledge actually being MORE valuable than things. There’s a lot of old-time wisdom disappearing and expecting to take a crash course in survival AFTER things “hit the fan” is sort of like closing the barn door after the livestock is gone..too little done too late.

I’ve learned a lot over a couple of decades and still need to learn more but the biggest thing I see missing in this situation is simple COMMON SENSE - both with the dolts in Congress and with so many fooled by the smoke and mirrors of fear and “recreational” entertainment diversions.

The saddest is those that have become SO narrow in their lives that they are CLUELESS as to things like what wild plants are edible, how to preserve food, and how to stay warm without modern day conveniences.

Maybe learning some of those skills is where those that truly want to “survive” beyond the limits of their stored convenience foods should be putting their efforts.



I like the advice Celente gave on Fox about going to school and getting some skills. Here in Georgia the HOPE Scholarship and HOPE Grant make it free for Georgia residents to go get skills at Georgia's technical colleges.

I think that the powers that be, the global elite, want us to be afraid and fearful.

Y2K? Now Celente is saying by 2012, the USA will be having food riots and much worse?

A lot of people are spreading fear about 2012. Why? What's going on? Are we being manipulated for some reason?

This great evil. Where does it come from? How'd it steal into the world? What seed, what root did it grow from? Who's doin' this? Who's killin' us? Robbing us of life and light. Mockin' us with the sight of what we might've known. Does our ruin benefit the earth? Does it help the grass to grow, the sun to shine? Is this darkness in you, too? Have you passed to this night?-The Thin Red Line

Does Maya calendar predict 2012 apocalypse?
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2007-03-27-maya-2012_n.htm

With humanity coming up fast on 2012, publishers are helping readers gear up and count down to this mysterious — some even call it apocalyptic — date that ancient Mayan societies were anticipating thousands of years ago...Journalist Lawrence Joseph forecasts widespread catastrophe in Apocalypse 2012: A Scientific Investigation Into Civilization's End. Spiritual healer Andrew Smith predicts a restoration of a "true balance between Divine Feminine and Masculine" in The Revolution of 2012: Vol. 1, The Preparation. In 2012, Daniel Pinchbeck anticipates a "change in the nature of consciousness," assisted by indigenous insights and psychedelic drug use.

The buildup to 2012 echoes excitement and fear expressed on the eve of the new millennium, popularly known as Y2K, though on a smaller scale, says Lynn Garrett, senior religion editor at Publishers Weekly. She says publishers seem to be courting readers who believe humanity is creating its own ecological disasters and desperately needs ancient indigenous wisdom...But scholars are bristling at attempts to link the ancient Maya with trends in contemporary spirituality. Maya civilization, known for advanced writing, mathematics and astronomy, flourished for centuries in Mesoamerica, especially between A.D. 300 and 900. Its Long Count calendar, which was discontinued under Spanish colonization, tracks more than 5,000 years, then resets at year zero.

"For the ancient Maya, it was a huge celebration to make it to the end of a whole cycle," says Sandra Noble, executive director of the Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies in Crystal River, Fla. To render Dec. 21, 2012, as a doomsday or moment of cosmic shifting, she says, is "a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in."

Part of the 2012 mystique stems from the stars. On the winter solstice in 2012, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way for the first time in about 26,000 years. This means that "whatever energy typically streams to Earth from the center of the Milky Way will indeed be disrupted on 12/21/12 at 11:11 p.m. Universal Time," Joseph writes.

But scholars doubt the ancient Maya extrapolated great meaning from anticipating the alignment — if they were even aware of what the configuration would be.

Astronomers generally agree that "it would be impossible the Maya themselves would have known that," says Susan Milbrath, a Maya archaeoastronomer and a curator at the Florida Museum of Natural History. What's more, she says, "we have no record or knowledge that they would think the world would come to an end at that point."

University of Florida anthropologist Susan Gillespie says the 2012 phenomenon comes "from media and from other people making use of the Maya past to fulfill agendas that are really their own."

University of Florida anthropologist Susan Gillespie says the 2012 phenomenon comes "from media and from other people making use of the Maya past to fulfill agendas that are really their own."

Hmmm...I do think that the economy and the value of the dollar will have to get worse to get Americans to accept the North American Union. Yes Miss HeatherB, I do feel that these "predictions" can be a form of programming and brainwashing so to speak. I feel that we are being manipulated on so many levels that we don't understand and I'm so sick of it.

I predict that Obama will take his rightful seat at the throne of our country and things will immediately improve to a utopian state.

Well I sincerely hope so. That being said, I don't believe it. If you base your belief on scripture I shall say; there will be many false profits.

Respectfully, I hope you are correct. I do doubt it though. 'Hub

Well, I may or may not believe in them, still, I'll start looking into decent tent, sleeping bag and a couple of handy weapons (Or maybe a handful of shrikens. I hope I spelled it right, they're known as "Falling Stars" Very pointy and painful if lodged in you)

And a couple of issues or books detailing about living out in the wild...Gads, think of it, a nearly 50 year old preparing for life in a forest...

Not surprising, many did it during the great depression...But I will still hold onto some hope that these dire predicitons will not become reality.

Kiplinger.com - They Called It Right (Plus Predictions for 2009)

http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=122769&t=01000420523245711617

Who saw the financial meltdown of 2008 coming? Why the bears, of course. Kiplinger's Personal Finance went back to see which investors, analysts and academics made the right predictions about the market and economy in 2008 and asked each for their 2009 outlook. Although some, like Jeremy Grantham, see hope for 2009, these Cassandras remain a dour bunch. As for us, we expect that the recession will end in mid-2009 and that stocks could gain 5% to 8% for the year

NOURIEL ROUBINI, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor at New York University

WHAT HE SAID: There is going to be a recession next year ... The bursting of the housing bubble -- we have not seen it yet -- is going to lead to broader systemic banking problems. It is going to start with the subprime lenders ... and then it is going to be transmitted to other banks and financial institutions all over the country. -- September 7, 2006, speech to the International Monetary Fund

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: I expect that the recession will be very severe and that it won't be over before the end of 2009. And even though we might technically be out of recession in 2010, annual growth could be just 1.0% to 1.5% for several years if the credit crunch remains severe. I think there is a further 15% to 20% downside risk for global and U.S. stocks, and a further 15% to 20% downside risk for commodity prices. So 2009 will be a year of recession and deflation.



PETER SCHIFF, president of Euro Pacific Capital

WHAT HE SAID: This is going to be an enormous credit crunch. The party is over for the United States ... [Subprime] is not a tiny [problem], and it's not just subprime -- it's the entire mortgage market. -- August 18, 2007, Fox News

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: The dollar is going to resume its fall, leading to a resurgence in the bull market in commodities. That will pierce the bubble in the bond market, causing interest rates to go up. So we're going to be in a depressionary environment, but with rising prices and rising interest rates. Our economy will be a mess for years and years to come.


MEREDITH WHITNEY, analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

WHAT SHE SAID: We believe that over the near term, Citigroup will need to raise over $30 billion in capital through either asset sales, a dividend cut, a capital raise or a combination thereof. We believe such a catalyst will pressure the stock significantly lower. -- October 31, 2007, research note [Citigroup announced a 41% dividend cut on January 15.]

HER PREDICTION FOR 2009: We believe we are now entering a new era in the financial landscape that will be characterized by expanded forced consumer deleveraging, with a pronounced downshift in consumer spending ... Specific to the credit-card industry, we believe that well over $2 trillion of lines [of credit] will be pulled over the next 18 months. -- November 30, 2008, research note


DAVID TICE, chief equity strategist for bear markets, Federated Investors, and former manager of what is now called Federated Prudent Bear fund

WHAT HE SAID: Corporate profits, household incomes, asset prices and economic performance have all evolved to the point of acute dependency on ongoing leveraged speculation and rampant credit inflation ... Mortgage finance is tightening, with negative portents for inflated housing prices, the overleveraged consumer, scores of exposed debt instruments and financial institutions, and the highly maladjusted U.S. bubble economy. -- March 2007, letter to shareholders

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: The dollar will decline, and it's very possible that inflation will pick up. The S&P 500 index could easily fall to 450 or so [it closed December 19 at 887.88]. This will be a longer-term decline -- you'll see fits and starts and significant rallies, which will be selling opportunities. But it's likely going to take four to five to ten years. Investors should be selling equities and conserving cash. I think gold represents a phenomenal opportunity right now.


JEREMY GRANTHAM, chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.

WHAT HE SAID: In five years, I expect that at least one major 'bank' (broadly defined) will have failed ... I have often been bearish about the U.S. equity markets in the last 12 years ... but I think it is fair to say that my language has almost never been this dire. The feeling I have today is that of watching a very slow-motion train wreck. -- July 2007, quarterly letter

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: I think there's a two-to-one chance that the market will go to new lows in 2009. A further 25% to 30% drop is probable. But that will be setting up the basis for a multiyear rally, in which the market could double, triple or quadruple. [If you invest in stocks today], you have a reasonable chance of making 7.25% [a year], plus inflation, over the next seven years.


ROBERT SHILLER, professor at Yale University

WHAT HE SAID: The home-price bubble feels like the stock-market mania in the fall of 1999, just before the stock bubble burst in early 2000, with all the hype, herd investing and absolute confidence in the inevitability of continuing price appreciation. -- June 20, 2005, Barron's

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: The present situation has many similarities to the Great Depression. The Great Depression was a self-fulfilling prophecy-there was no reason for it other than that people were getting worried, and right now everyone's worried about what bad times we're in. We do have better monetary policy and a government that's clearer on its fiscal policy, so I'm hopeful. [Fed Chairman] Ben Bernanke claims he can stop deflation. Bernanke will be tested.


BOB RODRIGUEZ & TOM ATTEBERRY, chief executive officer and partner, respectively, First Pacific Advisors

WHAT THEY SAID: Fear of a general contagion from the subprime fallout has worried the financial markets and especially the housing sector. So far, the general belief is that it will be contained ... We are not so sure ... [The financial-service sector's] profitability is at risk ... The common thread that is flowing through the housing market, private equity, hedge funds and other aggressive forms of investing is the absence of fear. They are all using elevated levels of financial leverage ... there will be a high price to be paid for excess. -- March 31, 2007, market commentary

THEIR PREDICTION FOR 2009: Projections of economic growth have been far too optimistic. This is a multiple-year problem. The problem lies in the fact that the primary driver of economic activity has been the consumer, and this person needs to rehabilitate his balance sheet. Corporate earnings in 2009 will be lower than people expect, and margins will decline. The upturn won't come until 2010, and when it does, it will look very sluggish and lethargic.


MARK KIESEL, portfolio manager at Pimco

WHAT HE SAID: I believe the U.S. housing market is set to cool given the current level of prices and fundamental trends. Recent price gains have likely come primarily from rising speculation and "creative financing" because affordability is declining and inventories are rising ... With a softening housing market, we should expect tighter lending standards, a moderation in the willingness to take risk, a slowdown in the pace of asset price appreciation, less-liquid markets, and rising volatility in financial markets. -- June 2006, market commentary [Home prices peaked in July 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index.]

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: The consumer went through a 20-year leveraging-up period. Now we're going through the Great Unwind, and that takes time. We'll probably stay in a recession until the second half of 2009, but even as we come out, it won't feel good. This will be an extended period of subpar growth. Credit is the blood that flows through the patient, and the patient has had a heart attack. It's too soon to buy stocks and too soon to buy a house. It won't be time to buy until the credit markets have healed.

Comments
I love the lack of freaking out evident in those predictions. These are rational, useful looks at the situation.

Thank you!!!

thanks for the post... i agree with monk... unlike most ...bloggers who want you to commit suicide by their non stop rants... these at least point out 1) near term pain, 2) then healing comes

The Conspiracy Theorists called it years beforehand, like they always do. The Money System is total fraud from start to finish. The stock market is a rigged and manipulated gambling casino. It's now going to be consigned to the dustbin. You will accept electronic money, dictated world central bank currency issued by criminal fraudsters, patsy national governments, fascist corporate dictatorship, poisoning, starvation, transhumanism and eugenics... en masse. Oh yes, did I mention World War 3. Money is a confidence trick, Banks invent it from thin air and you then pay this non-existant money back with blood, sweat and tears. Then they mug you again via bailouts which go straight in the criminals pockets. All greased via ludicrous law and NO justice.. not for the slaves anyway. Recovery... you are having a laugh. Like economists have been doing for decades now. Fraud or Fool. Which one are you? Now IS the time to choose the side of right.

Seems Schiff is the only commentator with the gloves off & man has he taken a shellacking in the 'press' over time. (I know his Euro-Pac portfolios have taken a hammering over the past year but then there are very few who have not!) The odd man out always does..swimming against a raging sea of 'financial' flotsam.

PerverseWorld has it right from amongst the few posters thus far. I am mildly humored and violently sickened at the same time at the predictions of these 'economist' & 'media' puppets who throw out the stale bread to the poodles on the street.. the 201K holders, the pensioners who are on deck to retirement, the masses of homeowners already upside down and the Alt-A, A credit, Credit card, Auto loan, Student loan, SSI, Medicare, Medicaid, Welfare state..Local & State governments who are ALL standing at the edge of the abyss.

A second grader could figure this out: It just don't figure!...except for if you're sitting at the top rubbing your grubby meat hooks together and waiting to move in for the real kill.

I've got one question for the enlightened financial press and dabblers in the same: Just what in the h*** is going to happen to turn this pig around? Major manufacturing returning to the US? Rabid consumerizm suddenly resuscitated in the west? Mortgage commitments falling out of the sky? Housing suddenly affordable for the fresh hires??! An end to bottomless pit conflict? A return to sane banking priciples? A resurgence of consumer savings instead of negative savings rates? Sensible energy policies? ....A rebirth of self determination unfettered by an iron fist?...

...Jump those hurdles you 2009/2010 prosperity returns optimists. Better yet: take 2 aspirin.. and catch the next flight to the moon. At least there--one can make a fresh start!

I'm amazed that Gerald Celente of the Trends Institute isn't on this list, because he's been more accurate in his forecasts than any analyst in the country, bar none.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqvZwo2qhIohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46MEqEgdLTg

Several sub-prime mortgages will be adjusting upwards in the first quarter of 09, and credit card debtors will start defaulting on a mass basis as layoffs continue and jobs get scarce.

Obama's initiatives will have a positive effect in the beginning, but later on will cause a greater strain on the economy, which will add to the problems. It isn't possible to pay for everyone's health care in a severe recession when government funds are limited without causing a greater imbalance in the budget.

China is having its own problems and could be presented with the dire option of forgiving US debt as Japan is doing in order to assist the US to stay solvent, but if it does China itself will implode. They're already having riots and mass protests right now. If it calls in its US markers, the US will be insolvent.

Sorry to sound so negative, but as Patrick Henrey said , in essence, in his famous "Give me liberty or give me death speech: I'd rather know the truth, the worst, and prepare for it.

Looking at the situation objectively and unemotionally, it's very obvious that it's not possible to fix the system. It's broken.

This one world government bunch has pushed for mass migration of warm bodies to the point that Greece, France, Spain, and the UK are having BIG problems with the added burden of social benefits to their illegal and legal immigrants both, just as the US.

However, Europe has the added problem of the formation of a large contingent of jihadists that are both home grown and foreign born that will cause severe problems as the economy worsens, so we have the added burden of large scale civil upheavals to worry about.

JAMES E. SCHILDGEN, President, Capital Futures Associates, West Palm Beach, FL.

Not only did I call it right, as an experienced trader with over 40 years trading history, but I called it right in advance. Check out my website to confirm everything I say - www.GnomesofLaSalleStreet.com

Most "economists" or "Financial Editors" keep repeating a story until it unfolds, then spend the rest of their life bragging about it. It is the trader who knows when he's right in advance and admits when he's wrong (gets out of a bad trade) that is the exception. In this field of learning curve progress, only a few have ever gained the wisdom of trading the 'surprise big market moves' - Livermore, Gann, Cashman, Ney, Sibbet, Dewey, Elliott to name but a few. The people you've listed can't trade! They can write but can't detail out a plan- or campaign for trading if their life depended on it. Avoid them!

In late 2006, I put out my first warning of the Equities sector busting as well as the Commodities Bubble bursting. Unlike economists, I actually put out exact dates for certain markets to turn on (yes, it is possible) and when they hit. The Double Top in Equities were pegged to the "days" of July 13th & 16th as well as October 11th in 2007.

I also called the Double Top in the Worldwide Commodity Bubble - in advance, as well as the exact days of the C.R.B. Continuous Commodity Index in late February, early March and July 3rd, 2008. I don't believe any of the so-called economists you have on your list can come close to an 85-95 % accuracy factor if their lives depended on it. And I leave my exact dates on my website, both past- as well as my future lists 1 month in advance for all to see. Fundamentalists can't match this because they just guess, and don't know timing.

All this is possible with a full understanding of Financial Cycles which I have become a master at. I've spent a fortune of my own money accumulating the essence of all Financial Bubbles, Panics, Manias and Crashes through massive studies all my life and accumulated a library of over 1,200+ volumes in finance as well. I only bought about 1 out of 3 of the books I've read, so you can imagine my total concentration and grasp of the realities out there. As a rule, I usually attract experienced traders and other fund managers as they recognize that I follow the rules of trading, but do it better than almost any fund manager in history.

Thought you should know.

James E. Schildgen

Many of the arguments they are making are the same ones that come out every time we have a recession (Ex: substitute Japan for China and you have the same debt arguments made during the 1980's recessions). These arguments seem to make more sense when things look and feel so bad. The truth is we are clearly in a more severe downturn than we have had in some time. But remember, downturns are a regular part of our economy. Every 5-10 years. As is noted by the "Real" economists and portfolio managers highlighted above we are likely in for a longer and deeper recession than we have seen in some time and the recovery will likely be slower than what we have seen in the recent past. That said, the deleveriging will take place, personal balance sheets will be repaired, some old industries will go away, some new ones will emerge, and we will eventually have a growing economy again. Those individuals that use prudent personal finance principals and who invest in a diverse mix of assets classes will continue to thrive. Those that choose to stock up on canned goods and guns as well as invest all their assets in Gold will feel about as smart as someone who bought a portfolio of internet stocks in March of 2000.

'If your outgo exceeds your income, your upkeep will be your downfall.'

'Deficits don't matter.' (Cheney to O'Niell)

There can be NO comparison between what is occurring now, and previous 'downturns', as the U.S. is leveraged to the hilt, and the manufacturing sector (the ones upon which everyone else depends to create CAPITAL) has been decimated.

A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon, you're talking about REAL money!

Due to the fact that our currency is essentially FIAT, backed only by OIL trade with OPEC in dollars, expect that the agreement will be breached in the very near future. All those nations who hold USDollars will wish, at that time, to dump them, to cut their own losses, and China and other Sovereign Wealth Fund holders won't 'fogive' our debt, they will exercize the same perogative that a bank does, when the debtor fails to make payments-they will REPOSSES THE PROPERTY (that being, the good old U.S. of A.).

All the models of 'delevaraging' and 'risk assessment' and such, that I see, become essentially worthless, if this takes place.

Obama has a plan to 'help us', which costs a Trillion Feds. The 'government' is in arrears (officially) to the tune of 10.7 Trillion feds. WHERE is Barky gonna borrow the money? Probably the same place that Bush borrowed the money to keep fighting our war on emotions ('terror'), the Chinese---or else he'll get the FED to print some more scrip.

Weimar Republic, or Martial Law, either way, the end becomes more in focus with each passing day.

It is a shame that the issues are so obvious, and the answer WAS so simple (but now, perhaps too late to have any effect). Sound money, basic principles, United States Constitution, alas, relegated to the dustbin of history-

The first-class passengers have almost all the deck chairs rearranged to compensate for the ever-increasing list of the Titanic, and the band is still playing happy tunes, but by this time at least half of the steerage passengers have drowned (in debt).

The answer that the elite give: LEND MORE MONEY, PRINT MORE MONEY, DEFICITS DON'T MATTER (but, the lifeboats are off-limits to the steerage passengers). This ship cannot sink!

'I assure you, sir, she's made of iron. She CAN sink!'

Well I sincerely hope so. That being said, I don't believe it. If you base your belief on scripture I shall say; there will be many false profits.

Respectfully, I hope you are correct. I do doubt it though. 'Hub

My statement was purely and wholly sarcastic.

Obama cannot fix the economy or the nation because he's trying the same failed policies of the past. You can't keep spending money you don't have.

That's what is killing our nation not since Andrew Jackson have we been debt free. It is the same problem that has plagued us time and time again. Almost all religions have some teaching against becoming indebted yet we choose to ignore it as a society.

Until our nation understands that it must live within its means our freedom and possibly our very lives are in danger.

Question for posters...

Do you believe what these predictions say? If so, are you changing your habits now to prepare for them.

I don't know how to put this so I hope it makes sense. Sometimes I feel that the "predictions" are what causes things. For instance.... a well know "predictor" says there's going to be an financial melt-down so the people that believe it pull all their money out of the banks..... which in turn [I]causes[I] the financial melt-down.


Yes, HeatherB, there is actually an entire body of economic principals at work here known as "The Theory of Expectations". Which originally was very narrowly limited to interest rate and unemployment predictors. But, as you point out, I believe that these globel expectations have a larger impact on our economy. (Globel can be relative too - it can the the US or literally the world economy). In fact, I believe the markets are "played" a bit by the media to move the markets in the direction that most benefits the 'big players'. And who is left to pick up the tab....us.