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A Top 10 'Real' Unemployment Report for 2010 and a Peek at 2011

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    A Top 10 'Real' Unemployment Report for 2010 and a Peek at 2011

    January 4, 2011


    Many 2010 year end employment stories focused on job creation and how jobless claims are less now than at the end of 2009. In reality, job creation is still meager considering we are supposedly rapidly recovering from the Great Recession. But without seeing the real jobs picture, it's impossible for legislators, corporations, small businesses, entrepreneurs and citizens to address what needs to be done to assist job creation going forward. There are many instances where employment reports are skewed by using selected "good" numbers while ignoring the "real" numbers. What follows is a top 10 of 2010 "Good" Numbers v. "Real" Numbers comparison of employment.

    1. One of the most abused employment numbers is the jobs creation figure touted by many current federal appointees and politicos. From January through November, the entire US economy created 951,000 jobs. Sounds good, doesn't it? Unfortunately, that monthly average of 86,000 jobs a month is 39,000 jobs a month short of simply filling the 125,000 jobs needed for NEW entrants to the workforce. That's 429,000 fewer jobs than needed to break even during the January through November period.

    While it could take more than six years to replace jobs lost during the recession, it will take much longer when considering the new jobs needed to keep up with new entrants to the workforce, but that fact is seldom mentioned.

    2. The government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on business tax breaks and received fewer jobs than then were outsourced by those same businesses.

    The Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think tank, says American companies have created 1.4 million jobs overseas this year, compared with less than 1 million in the U.S. The additional 1.4 million jobs would have lowered the U.S. unemployment rate to 8.9 percent, says Robert Scott, the institute's senior international economist.

    3. The 2009, 800 billion stimulus bill was deemed a massive jobs creator, but what did those jobs cost? According to Recovery.gov, the money spent has created or saved 3.2 million jobs, or about 250,000 per job. While much of the stimulus funds went to various tax breaks for individuals, it's helpful to look at the bigger picture to see the total cost per job.

    How will those jobs be saved when stimulus funds slow and eventually end? Will the private sector come in and take on that responsibility? Not likely. And with Republicans taking control of the House with ill-conceived spending destruction schemes, the end of stimulus funds could come sooner than predicted.

    4. The job openings picture, while improving, is not to a point where it is able to make a dent in the unemployment/underemployment rate. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report shows 3.4 million job openings on the last business day of October 2010. There are 15 million unemployed, 2.5 million marginally attached workers (not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work) and another 9 million underemployed seeking full-time work. As a result, there are 26.5 million unemployed/underemployed and 3.4 million job openings, or nearly 8 workers for each advertised job opening. Unfortunately, those job openings contain part-time, seasonal, contract and temporary jobs, which make the number look better than it is actually.

    5. How many part-time jobs are being created compared to full-time jobs? It's an important distinction since businesses hire full-time people when they are confident of improving business conditions. Full-time jobs also offer better pay, benefits and more security, generally.

    ZeroHedge; In a nutshell: in December 2007 there were 121.7 million full time jobs, while 24.8 million Americans were part-time workers for economic reasons; fast forward to November 2010 where we find that 111.1 million employees are now full time, while the rank of the part-times have increased to 27.6 million. And it is not rocket science, that converting a population to part-time workers has a disastrous impact on wealth. Yet more and more people are forced to work part-time, even as full time working Americans are now at their lowest since February 2010. But for some odd reason the market remains transfixed that 39k very much adjusted and completely unrealistic people may have found a job on private payrolls in November, even as full time jobs dropped by 478k.

    6. The number of people who were too discouraged to look for work was higher in November 2010 than in October 2010, or November 2009. These unemployed are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, since you have to be looking for work to collect benefits.

    About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in November, up from 2.3 million a year earlier. Among the marginally attached, there were 1.3 million discouraged workers in November, an increase of 421,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available.

    7. Then there's the observation that the US is short 9 million jobs from population growth during the past decade.

    According to the Economic Populist: A Decade of Job Stagnation In 2000, 135 million citizens were employed. In 2010 there were 139 million Americans employed. Given the 9.7 percent increase in population since 2000, we would expect to see at least 148 million citizens with jobs.
    Where are those jobs?

    8. Looking ahead, there seems to be a belief that jobs will be created by the millions and all will be well.

    Baumohl and some other economists forecast between 2.5 million and 3 million jobs being added to U.S. payrolls in 2011, about triple the gains likely to be recorded in 2010 and what would be the best one-year jump since the white hot labor market of 1999.

    These so called experts fail to see some very important factors. Even if 3 million jobs are created, it takes 125,000 jobs a month to break even with new workforce entrants. 1.5 million jobs must be created to keep the unemployment rate steady. The remaining 1.5 million new jobs will be available to the other 25 million unemployed/underemployed seeking full-time work. Not as pretty a picture as it seems.

    9. There have been many stories and reports stating that unemployment benefits lead to the unemployed not looking for work. That misconception is often brought up when discussing the extension of unemployment benefits. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Extended Unemployment and UI Benefits

    Although economists have shown that extended availability of UI benefits will increase unemployment duration, the effect in the latest downturn appears quite small compared with other determinants of the unemployment rate. Our analysis suggests that extended UI benefits account for about 0.4 percentage point of the nearly 6 percentage point increase in the national unemployment rate over the past few years. It is not surprising that the disincentive effects of UI would loom small in the midst of the most severe labor market downturn since the Great Depression.

    10. The final reality of the 2010 jobs picture is that there are between 3-5 million unemployed workers who have exhausted all unemployment benefits, the 99ers. These 99ers and their families are suffering mightily through this jobless recession yet they are ignored by the president, scorned by congressional Republicans, and used by congressional Democrats who feign concern.

    As 2011 moves forward, the ranks of 99ers will grow substantially. Someone who is laid off in 2011, will likely stand no chance of collecting 99 weeks of benefits. The new long-term unemployed will become 60ers and in some cases 46ers by the end of 2011. Congress passed a 13-month extension of eligibility and those extended benefits will end during the spring of 2012. Now that Republicans and Tea Partiers are in control of the House, it's highly unlikely that benefits will again be extended and a Tier 5 of benefits for 99ers will be considered.

    The U.S. is still in the midst of a jobs shortage and unless millions of jobs are created quickly, millions of people who want to work will be left behind.

    It is a new year and it's important to be positive about the future, but it's also important to be realistic. While 2011 brings new hope for millions of unemployed, that hope will be dashed if jobs are not available. What then? We'll soon find out.


    Last edited by AngelinaCat; 01-06-2011, 12:34 PM. Reason: Checked link at poster's request and added spaces between paragraphs.
    8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

    #2
    this is pretty scary stuff ....i really hope 2011 will bring more jobs to all!

    for some reason there is a link problem....very odd....because this is most interesting. it just seems to be a bk forum link problem??

    8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

    Comment


      #3
      One of our local papers just released the "real" unemployment figures for the tri county area where I live. The real unemployment figure is 15%! There was also an article a few weeks back about someone buying the old Walmart building in our town for a packaging buisness that was going to employ 70 people at $9.50/hr jobs. Just a notch above poverty wages. Go figure.

      Maybe the retiring baby boomers will give way to more job openings, but more boomers plan on working into their 70's because they can't afford to retire. I would not want to be a young person starting out with these circumstances over your head.
      Filed July 2009. Discharged 08/08/2014. Awaiting closing. We made it !!!! Woo-hoo!

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by andy158 View Post
        One of our local papers just released the "real" unemployment figures for the tri county area where I live. The real unemployment figure is 15%! There was also an article a few weeks back about someone buying the old Walmart building in our town for a packaging buisness that was going to employ 70 people at $9.50/hr jobs. Just a notch above poverty wages. Go figure.

        Maybe the retiring baby boomers will give way to more job openings, but more boomers plan on working into their 70's because they can't afford to retire. I would not want to be a young person starting out with these circumstances over your head.
        me either...i mean how can one possibly support a family on $9.50 an hour....

        we JUST hit the mark....we could and have NOT been able to find jobs...being in the "baby" boomer generation many are TOO old to get a job and TOO young to get ss....thankfully in our case ONE of us was able to take the early ss and an early state pension. however, we have to live tight to the bone and tuck in and suck it in ....it's going to be a hard road ahead.

        i'd still rather work.. but it most certainly does not look that hopeful?
        8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

        Comment


          #5
          And as I keep on stressing the real reason why the politicians and the media pundits are spinning all this is because they realize as I do (and a few of you) that since we have the worlds reserve currency and we are the largest debtor nation in human history, if they tell the truth then the foreigners will all realize this and sell of their dollar denominated assets.

          That's when the inflationary depression that already began will blow it's fierce winds destroying everything in it's sight.

          All it takes are foreigners to stop buying our dollars and debt, they don't even have to sell their assets.

          Tomorrow morning when they release the jobs numbers they will most likely celebrate regardless of the numbers or the quality of the jobs.

          Every thinking person knows the truth, but it's being reported as if it's all good for these reasons.
          The essence of freedom is the proper limitation of Government

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by banca rotta View Post
            And as I keep on stressing the real reason why the politicians and the media pundits are spinning all this is because they realize as I do (and a few of you) that since we have the worlds reserve currency and we are the largest debtor nation in human history, if they tell the truth then the foreigners will all realize this and sell of their dollar denominated assets.

            That's when the inflationary depression that already began will blow it's fierce winds destroying everything in it's sight.

            All it takes are foreigners to stop buying our dollars and debt, they don't even have to sell their assets.

            Tomorrow morning when they release the jobs numbers they will most likely celebrate regardless of the numbers or the quality of the jobs.

            Every thinking person knows the truth, but it's being reported as if it's all good for these reasons.
            i you said it very well.....even after seeing this mornings number, which i have not, since as yet it hasn't been announced that i know of,...we most likely know that they are not really the "truth" or a true number.

            this government as well as past governing bodies of this country are all master spinner....

            it what made growing up in the 60s and 70s....,when we just weren't going to take it anymore.

            sad to say, most are complacent, and just sit back....and let it roll on in...that's even a scarier thought to me.
            8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

            Comment


              #7
              tobee, I have been searching hardcore and it is looking really bad. I am seeing a batch of jobs, but most of them have certain requirements that very few people can fill. I am applying for everything possible and nothing yet. I am also seeing the exact same companies posting for the same exact positions. No kidding, I have been looking at job boards for 10 years now and the same exact companies posting for the same exact positions for 5-10 years now. I can only imagine how long someone stays employed with these kinds of companies (wait, that has been me, lets say 3 months to 8 months).

              Comment


                #8
                i know helpme. and frankly, i really don't think it's going to get any better...at least not soon enough for many.

                i couldn't believe it, my daughter just found a job...but it's like at half the salary she should be rec'ing and twice the amount of workload....but it's better than no job at all.
                8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

                Comment


                  #9
                  They have counted them all.... with 10 fingers already...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by tobee43 View Post
                    i know helpme. and frankly, i really don't think it's going to get any better...at least not soon enough for many.

                    i couldn't believe it, my daughter just found a job...but it's like at half the salary she should be rec'ing and twice the amount of workload....but it's better than no job at all.
                    tobee, good news for your daughter, or at least half good news. I think this goes back to my theory about Burger jobs. Hey it pays enough money to fill up the gas tank to get to the burger job, but that's about it.

                    It is nice to vent out about stuff like this on this board.

                    I keep thinking about you having multiple degrees and having problems and I kind of scratch my head and think, "OK, I spent the last 2 years going back to school to finish my degree, busted my butt full time and graduated with honors. OK, where's the jobs??? Why did I earn my degree if I can't get a job with it??? OK, so I will lose my home and filed bk so I can have a fancy piece of paper framed on my wall???" - I am being a little sarcastic here. I know I will eventually find a job and the degree will make the difference in getting the job, but man this is really frustrating.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by helpme2010 View Post
                      tobee, good news for your daughter, or at least half good news. I think this goes back to my theory about Burger jobs. Hey it pays enough money to fill up the gas tank to get to the burger job, but that's about it.

                      It is nice to vent out about stuff like this on this board.

                      I keep thinking about you having multiple degrees and having problems and I kind of scratch my head and think, "OK, I spent the last 2 years going back to school to finish my degree, busted my butt full time and graduated with honors. OK, where's the jobs??? Why did I earn my degree if I can't get a job with it??? OK, so I will lose my home and filed bk so I can have a fancy piece of paper framed on my wall???" - I am being a little sarcastic here. I know I will eventually find a job and the degree will make the difference in getting the job, but man this is really frustrating.
                      well, here's the really BAD news...my daughter has also three degrees (and i am very proud of both my kids..i don't care so much about them making "money, but i want them to be happy at what they do) she's an academic so she will never made tons of money, although she has a.... ba, mba and a phd...ok...she's 33 years old and specializes in health care quality management...she develops systems creates those stats we all hate etc.......one of the number one fields in the country....she moved since her husband a grammar teacher for 5 years couldn't get a job in his field because in the state they lived masters level teachers, it is mandatory....they MUST make (depending on the location..town, county, city etc. ) at least 5-10k more...so of course with a duel masters in education and special ed...NO ONE would hire him...especially in light of all the budget cuts the past few years.... so he sub'ed for 5 years @ $50 a day.... while my daughter worked during two pregnancies...and was in a job 9 years going no where....no raise in 3 years, twice the amount of work...they laid off HER staff so now she was alone..it was hard but she did it that way for over 2 years.

                      they know that have to leave the cost of living is out of site...so they scope out two states that are suppose to be great in their fields.

                      she interviews in a "new" state...goes down for 3 interviews....he goes down to a teachers job fair...gets hired on the spot! (in that state it doesn't matter about your masters so of COURSE the schools WANT a masters degree'd person...so that was great...ok, now she purchased her house right after under grad school she was just 21...they put the house up for sale..of course couldn't sell it..prepare for the move....soldl the house...it's a "land contract" so someone is wrapping around her mortgage they are good to go....

                      until....they get down there AND she's told there has been a hiring freeze from the people that hired her!!!! she's the money maker in the family...so it was a real mess....

                      anyway she got a directorship that pays unreal terrible, i MEAN terrible...like if she had a ba and she so much responsibility, but as we were talking she's lucky she got anything and suck it up...between the two salaries they are far better. (she couldn't collect unemployment since she left for another job!) talk about a mess!!

                      so thankfully she and her's are ok for the moment....but remember all the degrees in the world are not going to help anyone IF there are simply NO jobs....and she is in one of those still "HOT" job fields!!!

                      go figure.
                      8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Ha! This cracks me up. I am just done with my degrees, lol and I can find nothing. I am in an MBA program now. Maybe by the time the loans come due I can maybe find a job. Seems that ALL the jobs here in my state that are being generated or available are customer service...low pay. I couldn't even afford child care with these...AND my husband works 2 jobs. We make great money now, but I am just sitting here! My field is HR and I have a very administrative background. I can find nothing. I will sit here and mope rather than make $10 an hour. I hope it gets better soon.

                        Thanks for the info Tobee! I love your news
                        Filed Chapter 7 October 5, 2010 -341 held Nov. 8, 2010- Report of No Distribution Nov. 12th, 2010- Discharged 1-10-2011 Closed 1-28-2011

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by tyson24 View Post
                          Ha! This cracks me up. I am just done with my degrees, lol and I can find nothing. I am in an MBA program now. Maybe by the time the loans come due I can maybe find a job. Seems that ALL the jobs here in my state that are being generated or available are customer service...low pay. I couldn't even afford child care with these...AND my husband works 2 jobs. We make great money now, but I am just sitting here! My field is HR and I have a very administrative background. I can find nothing. I will sit here and mope rather than make $10 an hour. I hope it gets better soon.

                          Thanks for the info Tobee! I love your news
                          ahhhh tyson...you will find something...so will helpme!! i know it, it will just take some time. you'll probably get something better when the time comes...or at least i hope so for you both!!!

                          the mba has been the most useful for her, so i think you are going in the right direction....but in her field if you don't have your phd, you go no where...., you don't get very far at all actually...it's still low paying compared to working for a major corp., but it's the field she loves and she's happy with. i'm really happy for them both actually!

                          they same will happen for you!! i have my fingers and toes crossed!!
                          8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Thanks Tobee

                            I am in HR so I would be okay with my BA, but IF I could find a job, the MBA would make me anywhere from $20,000-$40,000 more. Hell, customer service jobs with Comcast want you to have a BA for $14 and hour...get screwed. Ugh, but it is just the market. They taunt this job creation, but not the TYPE of jobs they are creating. Ones that are extremely low paying, or jobs that one person in this universe has the credentials for
                            Filed Chapter 7 October 5, 2010 -341 held Nov. 8, 2010- Report of No Distribution Nov. 12th, 2010- Discharged 1-10-2011 Closed 1-28-2011

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by tyson24 View Post
                              Thanks Tobee

                              I am in HR so I would be okay with my BA, but IF I could find a job, the MBA would make me anywhere from $20,000-$40,000 more. Hell, customer service jobs with Comcast want you to have a BA for $14 and hour...get screwed. Ugh, but it is just the market. They taunt this job creation, but not the TYPE of jobs they are creating. Ones that are extremely low paying, or jobs that one person in this universe has the credentials for
                              i know, and the problem with those jobs is you can't even put food on your tables!! i know you will be ok..

                              shoot my son-in-law works with some of the teachers that spouses do not work and they are on FOOD STAMPS!!!
                              8/4/2008 MAKE SURE AND VISIT Tobee's Blogs! http://www.bkforum.com/blog.php?32727-tobee43 and all are welcome to bk forum's Florida State Questions and Answers on BK http://www.bkforum.com/group.php?groupid=9

                              Comment

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