just curious?

[freshstart10]

how long do u guys think home values will continue to drop?

[Bandit]

Good Question.

I think getting loans is right about where it should be finally. Depending on the loaction I will bet they will continue to fall well through 2009 because we are nearing the two year mark of recession which means we now enter depression. At least Obama has been honest about the horrible economy going on for a good two more years which is a clue.

The uppity value of most homes & condos never did exist unless of course in certain business districts or gated communities etc..., so we have to get it back to where it is supposed to be. Too bad we had to go the hard way.

My thoughts.

[fltoo]

No one can say. Last time the bubble burst was in late 80s, early 90s. It lasted 8 years. Market was flat and depreciated a little, but nothing like the drop in this market.

Also, back then home equity loans were not that readily available, so people didn't strip all the equity out of their houses. Credit card debt was not as bad as it is today, either. And.......no way would anyone even think of a neg am loan. They were taboo. There was not a foreclosure crisis because people's mortgages were still less than the value of their house. Lastly, the government did not interfere with underwriting guidelines. Down payments were actually required and income was actually verified. A novel idea!

If I had to guess wildly in my most humble opinion and years in finance, I would say we have another year of depreciation, then 8-10 years of flat.

[Bandit]

The flat years is a good point.

good post, fltoo.

Lastly, the government did not interfere with underwriting guidelines. Down payments were actually required and income was actually verified. A novel idea!

So we could not buy 10 houses in 10 months with no job & no money down or in escrow ...just for the cool cash back

[fltoo]

Right on Bandit, lol.

I wonder how many people in Congress are shaking in their boots waiting for someone to ask them to disclose their HUD statements to see how much "cool cash" they received.

[Bandit]

I also keep thinking of all the people working in these monster banks who approved the liar loans. They got huge kick backs too for making a sale. A sale that never really existed. LOL!

I just had a thought & can't help but wonder if government allowed it to go on for so long with a purpose to get more power over the industry when it crashed? High Property taxes isn't enough!

[jeb]

If one remembers, early in the Bush administration was put forth, "everyone should own there own home.", and the Feds did nothing as these wild loans came into the market. If Fanni and Freddi had not purchased the loans from these lenders the final problem would never have happened.

As a Real Estate agent in central Florida, I have been 180% out of what other agents have been saying for over two years now.

I quit selling residential property over 2 years ago after the last two hoimes that I sold had loans given to people I wouldn't have loaned ten dollars to - they couldn't pay their present rent, much less higher payments, insurance, taxes, etc. Anyone with a brain could see that it just couldn't continue.

And when you put all the fraud into it - a group of a Real Estate Attorney, an appraiser, a mortgage broker and 2 Real Estate agents in the Orlando area bought a home for some $130,000.00 and, in a period of 9 months sold and bought the same house between themselves, the last time for over half a million - it had to fail big time.

Over two years ago I said it would go down. 6 months ago all the agents were telling people "it's time to buy, interest rates are down." I said we haven't even begin to see the bottom yet and when we finally do find a bottom we are going to level out and maybe - maybe - after about 2 years we may see a slow rise.

It was reported yesterday that loan apps were up 112% - almost all for re-finance. Re-finance does not take the homes off the market - until that happens nothing is going to turn the housing market around.

Two years ago our MLS had less than 2 months of inventory to sell - today, we have over 2 years - and this doesn't even take into account all the foreclosures that keep rising each month.

2-3 years to start to rise again and 6-8 years to get back to what might be considered a "normal" market - not what we had two years ago - may not be too far off. - jb