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Will Record Home Prices Continue Beyond 2022?

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    Question Will Record Home Prices Continue Beyond 2022?

    This a question for the gurus like justbroke and shipo. My husband found out today that a house under contract directly across the street from us with in walking and window perusing distance, sold for 85k over asking price (from 625 K to 710 K) While this is not much in NY, WA, MASS. NH, etc., that is very high for our neighborhood where homes are currently valued at around 600K or a bit above.
    Granted, this smaller house is a showstopper with massive updates and fancy additions, but it is directly across the street from our house and can be viewed from our bedroom, so we fully expect a little bump to our estimated value. My gut instinct is telling me don't delay but fix up what we can and sell while the demand is still so high.
    The only con to selling now is next year {possibly} the house could be worth maybe 50K (?) more but in the meantime, our monthly mortgage is rising more than a $100, starting in May due to an escrow shortage, and the repairs will only mount as more and more systems fail and the nearly 50-year-old kitchen will need to be gutted and completely remodeled. And of course, we don't have access to credit as we did when we spent over 100K on the fixer-upper disaster that forced us into BK13.
    The pros include for the first time in nearly 8 years, not having a mortgage, the solar panel lease and upkeep hanging over our heads like the sword of Damocles, poised to strike anytime. And should the market self-correct, we would be protected from a real loss or picky buyers passing our house up because it's "too old" and not up to their standards. Also, I could escape the stairs which could doom my ankle to potentially crippling surgeries that a ranch would not, and we could relocate to a milder, less toxic climate with cleaner air, lower sea-level altitude, and healthier humidity. And as a bonus, I might be able to pursue my former profession in the performing arts, which I had to abandon due to BK13 and the steady erosion of opportunities, as actors, VO artists, writers, directors, etc. migrated to more desirable artistic communities elsewhere. And traveling to Canada and other nearby US states would be possible instead of being stranded in the mountainous wasteland as we have been for 12 years already!
    Many "experts" here think these record home inflationary prices will continue for years to come and houses here will top over 1 million dollars, because "Colorado is the most desirable destination in the world" (really????)
    Being stuck here with an unwater property and a possible layoff down the road for my husband while my health and self-worth continues to diminish is not my idea of a bright future!!!

    #2
    I have something of a corollary story to your question about selling now or a year from now for say, 10 to 15 percent more...

    Back in 2008 I found several thousand dollars sitting in one of my investment accounts; the money came from a cash buyout of a stock I had previously owned and hadn't looked at for several years. Just about then the automobile companies were deciding whether or not to go bankrupt, and I felt it was a good bet Ford, in spite of their $1.14 per share value, would survive without going bankrupt, so I bought every last share that spare cash could.

    Fast forward three years, my wife's business was failing, and even though I knew it would be throwing good money after bad, I liquidated that Ford stock at around $19.00 per share, paid the taxes, and dumped the money into her business. Why the story? Because the week after I sold that stock it hit about $21.00 per share (this is from memory so I may be off a bit), and I was kicking myself for not waiting another week...

    ...a week later the stock started heading south, so far and so fast it was only in the last year or three before it ever got back up to the price where I'd sold it in 2011; with hindsight being 20/20, I am now glad I sold it when I did.

    So, with the story out of the way, my suggestion would be to sell while the market is hot.
    Latent car nut.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by shipo View Post
      So, with the story out of the way, my suggestion would be to sell while the market is hot.
      I have to repeat that.

      Hindsight is always 20/20. My brother bought a bunch of Enron stock as they were faltering (a penny-stock at the time), thinking that they would eventually survive and get back to about $90/share. It did bounce around and he could have got out when it hit $4, but he did not... he rode it to the bottom and lost everything. (Mind you, this was only a few thousand dollars.)

      We will always kick ourselves for not acting when we were inclined to act. Whether the market goes up or down, we'll always second guess the decision. Example, I short sold my home for less than $500K and now, today, it is over $950K. That's the difference in just 2 years. I can keep beating myself up or say that it was a good thing that I got rid of that home. I, like you, had a lot of deferred maintenance and it was just not something I wanted to put another $100K in, let alone even $10K.

      If you're leaving with a gain, be happy. Move on to enjoy a better life rather than chase the money.

      Of course, this is just my personal opinion.

      Chapter 7 (No Asset/Non-Consumer) Filed (Pro Se) 7/08 (converted from Chapter 13 - 2/10)
      Status: (Auto) Discharged and Closed! 5/10
      Visit My BKForum Blog: justbroke's Blog

      Any advice provided is not legal advice, but simply the musings of a fellow bankrupt.

      Comment


        #4
        Yeah I spoke with our neighbor on the way to work, I congratulated him and his wife on the home sale. He said they had Sixty offers. There was so much activity it was like a Starbucks on Free Coffee day.
        Barbisi and I are now packing the tedious stuff, and I am prepping for job interviews; lotsa work. We may have to hustle even faster, hope so in a way but man... we need a break. We are listening to some super chill music ()Tycho) just to calm down. Very busy couple of days on the job search front, so that is very uplifting. BK has definitely caused me to doubt myself, my self confidence, my belief in myself to make sound decisions and even my own intellect. Screw that. Before I die Imma Gonna Touch The Stars. And that's where we're goin, to make that happen.

        Comment


          #5
          Yeah I spoke with our neighbor on the way to work, I congratulated him and his wife on the home sale. He said they had Sixty offers. There was so much activity it was like a Starbucks on Free Coffee day.
          Barbisi and I are now packing the tedious stuff, and I am prepping for job interviews; lotsa work. We may have to hustle even faster, hope so in a way but man... we need a break. We are listening to some super chill music ()Tycho) just to calm down. Very busy couple of days on the job search front, so that is very uplifting. BK has definitely caused me to doubt myself, my self confidence, my belief in myself to make sound decisions and, perhaps in the darkest times, my own intellect. Screw that. Before I die Imma Gonna Touch The Stars. And that's where we're goin, to make that happen.

          Comment


            #6
            You guys might want to ride the FOMO wave and sell soon. I bet some of the 60 offers will move to your house without having to fix anything other than the items required for buyer financing. Buyers have money so they probably want to do their own cosmetic renovations anyway.

            Comment


              #7
              Thanks guys (@justbroke, shipo, and @flashoflight)!
              I'm glad I'm not the only one who can see just how transient this mad dash to buy homes here is - the locals just can't conceive in their narrow mindset that the whole world will, sooner than later, decide to stop coming here -after all this isn't and never will be LA or NYC!
              The prices won't keep soaring forever and when the gravy train here ends, more people will list their homes, more new homes will be built and then transplants will expect and get better prices. That's when we get royally rooked!
              The whole time we were bankrupt, I feared the market would self-correct and prices would plummet, but luckily that hasn't happened -yet-but it has to - and soon!
              I read that local median home prices have increased 61% since 2016! Only a Colorado pothead LOL could believe that will be sustainable in the long run.
              As you three gurus eloquently stated, we need to ride this current wave and come out with a more than decent profit now, and not wait for the freefall that's surely coming!
              Last edited by Barbisi; 03-04-2022, 09:36 AM.

              Comment


                #8
                Miami and Tampa were the third and second fastest appreciating markets, behind only Pheonix, Arizona. Up over 28% year over year for these two communities and 2020 saw similar price increases. From 2020-2022 these Florida cities were up over 50% each.

                Absolutely unsustainable. I remember this exact frenzy in 2008.
                Chapter 7 (No Asset/Non-Consumer) Filed (Pro Se) 7/08 (converted from Chapter 13 - 2/10)
                Status: (Auto) Discharged and Closed! 5/10
                Visit My BKForum Blog: justbroke's Blog

                Any advice provided is not legal advice, but simply the musings of a fellow bankrupt.

                Comment


                  #9
                  I am not an expert at all, but if it was me I would being selling that house ASAP!
                  I am not an expert. I just share my experiences in the Wonderful Wacky World of Chapter 13!

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Carmella, that is the plan!
                    I just saw where Redfin (a more reliable source of RE info than Zillow) estimated our house's value at a 20k increase (in just 24-48 hours). I think this reflects the bump that the absurd sale price of the smaller tri-level house directly across the street from here gave us, just as I predicted. Will it last until say, May? I hope so!

                    Comment


                      #11
                      May is just around the corner, fingers crossed!
                      I am not an expert. I just share my experiences in the Wonderful Wacky World of Chapter 13!

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Carmella View Post
                        I am not an expert at all, but if it was me I would being selling that house ASAP!
                        Absolutely correct here.

                        It will eventually come down. Interest rates are going up. Also, who can afford these houses? Where are the jobs?

                        I am considering selling my home that I have had for 16 years, because I am getting older now and don't need such a big home. Downsizing almost is NEVER a bad decision.

                        Comment

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